Sometimes we mess up.
Sometimes we start singing the second verse of “Through the Wire” four bars too early. Sometimes we make promises we can’t keep. Sometimes we put off working on a project or writing a paper or formatting an article on hypothetical gambling until moments before they are due.
Sometimes we post articles on hypothetical gambling with a few spelling/mathematical errors, and don’t even give out winning picks.
That last one might just be me.
But now just
hours minutes away from kickoff this Championship Sunday, I am filled with optimism. You might not think it, having seen my shaky picks of playoffs so far:
After a killer regular season, my picks seem to have fallen cold to the detriment of my hypothetical wallet. However, my losses have been kept to a minimum thanks to my adherence standard betting size. “Sharps” or professional bettors, tend to bet approximately 2-3% of their total bankroll on a game, unless they think they have found significant value in a side. With my starting bankroll of §530, my bets of §22 were fairly close to what my ideal bet size would be if I were doing this for a living.
This week, I fully realized that this is hypothetical money, and I am going to have more fun and get all of my remaining §404 in play. I am breaking rules here. Do not start changing your bet sizes all willy-nilly when you are gambling with real money; It’s a bad look, I assure you. But I want to have a bunch of hypothetical cash to bet on RUSSELL HUSTLE BUSTLE WILSON in the Super Bowl, so I this week I have to make some power moves.
I am currently running on three hours of sleeping in a parked car, meaning I am in my natural state of consciousness. I feel like I got some winners this time. All lines listed are currently available via Sportsbook.ag. Home team gets the asterisk.
Broncos* -5 (-105) over Patriots
I’m doing it again.
I’m counting out Touchdown Tom.
In this case though, I can’t think of another play. I have sees nothing in the lead up to this game that gave me the impression that the Patriots would pull this out. This is terrifying, because the Patriots basically specialize in winning games that it seems they have no business winning. I just want Evil Peyton Manning to go all Highlander on Brady, killing him and taking his powers in the process.
Betting §105 to win §100
Under 57 in Broncos/Patriots (-110)
Another lesson for those of you in Gambling 101: When looking at totals, historically the “under” is a better value bet. I add “historically” because this year over bets hit at a rate that was unreal.
Still, as a general rule, you can usually gain an advantage by seeking out totals that have snuck up too high. This most commonly happens when two gunslinging teams meet up in a high-profile match, just like this year’s AFC Championship.
This “line-inflation” occurs for a simple reason: it is way more fun to bet the over. When you bet the over, there is a point in the game when you actually win your bet – Peyton Manning throws for his fourth touchdown and brings their lead up to 40-27. Betting the under on the other hand, is no fun at all. You have to sweat out the entire game, and no matter how much of a defensive battle it might seem to be, you’re always one pick-six away from being totally screwed.
Big games like this one attract a greater amount of “public” money than your standard game. The public money tends to bet the more “fun” side, in this case the over. This in turn forces sportsbooks to raise the total higher than it’s actual number, in order to encourage betting on both sides. Those extra points that the books are adding on is where we find value, and here we have about 2.5 points worth, at least.
Betting §44 to win §40
LeGarrette Blount Over 74.5 yards rushing (-115)
I’m just going to refrain from writing anything here, for fear of slipping in a pun I would prefer not be a part of my Internet record. I just think that Blount gets higher than 74.5 yards. Simple as that.
Betting §46 to win §40
Russell Wilson over 1.5 TD passes (+130)
Betting §40 to win §52
Russell Wilson will NOT throw an INT (+120)
Betting §30 to win §36
Russell Wilson over 16 completions (-120)
Betting §36 to win §30
Seahawks* -3.5 (-105) over 49ers
Take me home RUSSELL. We’re almost there.
You’ll always be my audience of one.
Betting §105 to win §100
And there we have it. A grand total of §406 hypothetical dollars on the table this week, meaning that my hypothetical bookie is doing me a real solid and taking two hypothetical dollars on credit. He’s a good dude. He’s knows I’m going to win it back.