Hypothetical Gambling – Luck Is All You Need

andrew luck touchdown

Last week was not great.

Halfway through the first game of the NFL playoffs, I was feeling cocky. The Chiefs were up big, even after the devastating loss of Jamaal Charles. Andy Reid seemed to have a legitimate game plan.

Then Andrew Luck happened, and the rest of my weekend was downhill from there.

Hypothetical Playoffs 1-2014-tiff

I lost §72 of the original §530 Hypothetical Dollars that were so graciously given to me from a friendly stranger at the Philadelphia Airport last week. Now that there is an actual fake monetary value attached to my decisions, the process of making picks has become exponentially more daunting.

Adding to the terror of last week’s picks, my mother was visiting my pops in Las Vegas last weekend. I didn’t post my column until just before Saturday’s kickoff, but apparently my mother was still able to bet most every team that I chose in the column. With real money. This left me doubly bummed; both my mother’s wallet and my Internet reputation were being negatively impacted by my poor week.

Everything is much more real.

With that said, this is also Exhibit #237 of Momma Lauletta’s dopeness.

This week, I’m asking all close family members to please refrain from placing any actual money on my picks this week. I don’t trust the juju, and things were (hypothetically) going really well.

Also, I’m writing and posting this from New York City, bringing the total amount of international-locations-from-which-Tyler-has-posted-a-hypothetical-gambling-column up to six. I’m am proud of this figure, although I feel it might demonstrate my minor insanity.

On to the picks. All lines listed are currently available via Sportsbook.ag. Home team gets the asterisk.

Seahawks* -7.5 (-110) over Saints

Seahawks - we dat

I really think this line is too high. 7.5 is a lot of points against Drew Brees’ taste for touchdowns. And what if Rob Ryan gets all crazy on the sidelines and pumps up the Saints defense. And Jimmy Graham. This is a lot to overcome.

Whatever.

I am backing my boy RUSSELL HUSTLE BUSTLE WILSON for the duration. You don’t give up on dreams this late in the game.

Betting §22 to win §2o.

Colts +7 (-115) over Patriots*

Luck meme

I thought the Colts were a bad bet last week when they were only getting a point on the road against what I thought was a far superior defense. I saw a 28-point lead dwindle to dust as Andy Reid somehow figured out a way to lose my cover. Now, they are getting seven points on the road against the injury-ridden Patriots? And the Colts have a quarterback whose last name is literally “Luck”?

I am too scarred from last week to bet against Andrew again.

And to any skeptics of this pick praising the dominance of Touchdown Tom, let me say this:

That dude never covers seven points.

Betting §23 to win §2o.

Panthers* Moneyline (even) over Niners

Happy Cam-per (see what I did there?)

Happy Cam-per
(see what I did there?)

Last week I introduced novice gamblers to the concepts of picking against the spread, vig, and betting an over/under. This week’s lesson in gambling is the moneyline. It’s really simple, and kind of the best.

On a moneyline bet, you are simply betting on which team will win the game outright. This allows you to avoid worrying about the spread when betting a favorite, and can lead to extra value if you’re interested in an underdog.

In this case the vig is set at even, meaning I can bet §20 to win §20 on the Panthers to win the game. The simplicity of this exchange brings me back to my days of taking bets in middle school, when I would hustle kids who couldn’t grasp the concept of a spread into betting Xavier straight up against Duke come March. This bet just feels right.

Further, I am kind of offended that Colin Kaepernick is getting all this attention just because he played last week. If Cam Newton had been scampering his way around the field last Sunday, he would’ve put up some numbers. Gamblers tend to have short memories. I’m asking you to remember.

Betting §20 to win §2o.

Chargers +8.5 (-110) over Broncos*

Rivers Bolo

If Philip Rivers wears another bolo tie I’m in. And I’m really confident he’s going to wear another bolo tie.

Betting §22 to win §2o.

Over 55 (-110) in Chargers/Broncos

When the glory of the Bolo faces off against the terrors of Evil Peyton Manning in the ultimate battle between the light and the dark, points are going to be scored.

Betting §22 to win §2o.

Andrew Luck over 23.5 completions (-115)

My bet on the Colts to cover is based in Andrew Luck’s ability to come up big in the second half. Ideally, they’ll be down by 28 again at the break. And when the Colts are down big, it seems likely they’ll keep the ball away from Trent Richardson.

Betting §23 to win §2o.

Russell Wilson will NOT throw an INT (-130)

This is what is known as a Proposition (or “prop”) Bet. It is basically a bet on a singular event that will or will not happen during the game. These are in many cases directly related to player performance: “Drew Brees over/under 260.5 pass yards” or “Jimmy Graham WILL score a touchdown.”

Betting §26 to win §2o.

With this bet, I can finally bet on RUSSELL HUSTLE BUSTLE WILSON as an individual. And I know that he is a perfect individual.

And perfect individuals don’t throw interceptions at home against the Saints.

Happy Sundays.

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