The Hypothetical SuperContest – Week 3
I know I said this last week, but I really can’t believe how okay this exercise is going. I have now successfully made winning picks for two consecutive weeks. I feel like I am swimming (or skiing) in money. This never happens. I have attempted to write recurring gambling columns in the past, but quickly got frustrated as my jokes ran dry and my picks ran drier.
Let me be clear – regardless of how bad a turn my picks take down the line, I will keep writing this column for the entirety of the season. But after two weeks of cruising at 3-2, I am currently (hypothetically) tied with fifty other bettors for 67th place in the SuperContest. Out of how many gamblers you ask? Oh, only 1,034.
It’s a long season. I’m not getting too excited. The goal remains the same: snatch up as many 3-2 weeks as possible, and avoid going 0-5 for as long as God sees fit.
The Week 3 slate, minus Andy Reid’s homecoming on Thursday Night Football. Home teams get the asterisk.
Another brutal week. I don’t see any gimmes on the table. But gambling isn’t supposed to be comfortable. My love for the craft comes from the risk involved; that amazing feeling that courses through your veins when your gut knows something that the rest of the world doesn’t. Let’s find another 3-2 week in this nonsense.
Vikings* (-5.5) over Browns
This is a value bet. One of the wrinkles of the SuperContest is that you have to pay attention to line movement throughout the week. The lines are published on Wednesday and picks don’t need to be made until Saturday. That means that anytime something crazy happens midweek, like, oh I don’t know, Trent Richardson being traded from the Browns to the Colts, the SuperContest is locked into its already published spread. Vegas books now have this game at 7 points. To that I say thank you for the free point and a half. Now don’t mess this up Vikings. I’m looking at you Christian Ponder.
49ers* (-10) over Colts
Jim Harbaugh has a lot of anger in him.
He just got embarrassed by the Seahawks and the Hustle of Russell Bustle Wilson. Bill Barnwell of Grantland gave out the following statistic on his NFL Podcast:
In his professional career, Jim Harbaugh is 7-0 after a double digit loss. His teams have scored 160 points while allowing 43 points against them. In those games, opposing teams have scored only two touchdowns, both of which came in junk time by teams that were already down double digits.
Add in a brutal offensive line for the Colts and my lack of faith in Trent Richardson’s ability to learn a system in two days of prep… Feels like a cover to me.
Lions (+2) over Redskins*
This reeks of “easy money” but the scent is eerily familiar to “sucker bet,” which worries me. There is also the fact that the Lions have not won a road game against the Redskins since 1935, when the team was still in Boston. But that’s all history. Plus, have you seen the Redskins defense this year? Me neither.
Bears (-2.5) over Steelers*
I think the Steelers are the worst team in the NFL not named the Jaguars, Raiders, or Browns. I feel so strongly about this that I am conquering my longterm fear of betting on Jay Cutler on the road in a night game.
Come on Jay. I believe in you.
Giants (+1) over Panthers*
Tom Coughlin vs. Ron Rivera. Yeah, I’ll take my chances.
Last Week: 3-2
I suggest Texans -2.5, Bills -2.5, Falcons +2.5. I also have no faith in the Patriots covering ANY spread
Bills and Falcons were the last two picks cut!