I was wrong about a lot of things last week.
I was wrong in thinking that Jimmy Clausen would start for the Bears. To be fair, it wasn’t announced that Jay Cutler was ready to go until like ten minutes before kickoff, causing the Raiders to lose their status as road favorites after the line moved five points. I was pretty wrong in this case.
I was wrong when I stated the Seahawks started 0-2 last season, as I was quickly corrected by my friend Lindsey, a Packer fan, as she knew that Green Bay had lost to Seattle in Week 1 of 2014. Turns out I was pretty far off on this one. I remembered a point early last year when everyone was panicking about the Seahawks and Patriots…but it turns out people were calling for Brady’s head after they started 2-2, prompting “on to Cincinatti” and seven straight Patriots wins, and the Seahawks season only got as bad as 3-3 before they started winning everything. I was very wrong in this case.
I was wrong to bet against the Packers again as they are now 4-0 against the spread and apparently the greatest football team to ever play the game. I was extremely wrong in this case.
I was wrong to bet on the Eagles again as they have now proven beyond any shadow of a doubt that they are a completely garbage football team hardly capable of stringing together 20 minutes of competent football, let alone 60. At the beginning of the season I was certain the Eagles would be in the playoffs and was hesitantly hopeful that if we could figure out a way to sneak past Aaron Rodgers…a title wasn’t outside the realm of possibility.
I was completely, utterly, embarrassingly wrong in this case.
In the middle of all these missteps, I also had an abysmal 1-4 week picking against the spread. I won’t bore you with more self-loathing. I know I get repetitive when I start talking about how garbage my picks are. I’m pulling a Belichick.
On to Week 5.
Home team gets the asterisk.
Life is chaos. Nothing makes sense. Football is an arbitrary set of rules that we’ve all agreed to ascribe meaning to. Last night was my birthday and I celebrated too hard so this might be equal parts incoherent and concise. Here are my picks.
Jaguars (+3) over Buccaneers*
JACKSONVILLE I CAN’T QUIT YOU.
Some day Jacksonville is actually going to be good again and for two weeks I’m going to make a ton of money. Until then, I will continue backing them even if it seems to go against my best interests time and time again. It’s fun to believe in Blake Bortles.
Patriots (-8.5) over Cowboys*
I know you might be weary of trusting me betting against backup quarterbacks after that whole Jimmy Clausen fiasco last week. But barring a miracle Brandon Weedon will be the starting quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys. I get that they’re at home. I get that they have a very solid defense. I get that I usually love home dogs and holy crap is that a lot of points to give to a home dog. But then the Patriots receive the opening kickoff, drive the field for a touchdown, and all of a sudden the spread has shifted to -1.5.
I don’t even think Weedon has looked that bad this year. I just don’t trust him to come back to cover after being down 21-3 halfway through the second quarter.
Titans* (+2.5) over Bills
Home dogs! The Bills are a very overrated 2-2, with their wins over Miami and Indianapolis looking weaker and weaker with every passing Sunday. Meanwhile the Titans are at home and coming off a bye week. Give me my Marcus.
Steelers (+3) over Chargers*
This is a Michael Vick line and I don’t really mind betting on Michael Vick. San Diego has the fourth worst rush defense in the league and the Steelers have Le’Veon Bell. I’ll take those three points.
Falcons* (-7) over Redskins
The Falcons might legitimately be a good football team. I don’t put them close to the top of the league, but they have the firepower to outshoot anyone. With Matt Ryan and Julio Jones on your team, big lines seem a lot less scary. And sure I know that they beat my Eagles last week but I still think the Redskins are garbage. The Eagles are just, like, super garbage, apparently.
It’s been a rough year.
Chance the Gambler: Week 5
Because it was my birthday this past weekend, I decided to head to pro-football-reference.com and see which famous football players shared a birthday with me. Turns out not many. So I went to Sunday’s date to see if any famous football players were born then. Famous is a stretch for most of them, but there were enough professional football players born on October 11th to make this bit work (also one born on October 12th but to one of the MNF teams). For each player, I chose either the team he was drafted to or the team he spent the majority of his career with if the team that drafted him was already off the board.. Here are the results:
Buccaneers* (-3) over Jaguars – Steve Young (1st overall, 1984 supplemental draft)
Broncos (-4.5) over Raiders* – Bobby Humphrey (3rd overall, 1989 supplemental draft)
Saints (+4.5) over Eagles* – John Fourcade (undrafted, 1982)
Lions* (+2.5) over Cardinals – Dutch Clark (before the draft existed)
Steelers (+3) over Chargers* – Johnny Green (247th overall, 1959)
Happy birthday everyone. Hope it’s a good one.
Also, Happy Sundays.
My Picks Last Week: 1-4 /// My Picks Overall: 7-13
Chance Picks Last Week: 3-2 /// Chance Picks Overall: 9-11