The Hypothetical SuperContest – Week 2

One week into the SuperContest, and I don’t hate myself yet. Oh man, it feels like it’s going to be a good year.

After starting out 3-2, I am currently hypothetically in the upper half of the table (!) and in good standing to move forward in my hypothetical gambling. You may think that it’s easy to pick five games a week and come out looking like a champion, but let me give you some perspective: This past week, only 3 people went 5-0 on their picks, 58 went 0-5.

In fact…

Taking into consideration what @WagerMinds tweeted, allow me to say WHAT’S UP 3-2 YOU LOOK GOOD.

My goal in this is to go the whole year without an 0-5 week. I think my best hopes for making the top 30 is to churn out as many 3-2 weeks as possible and then have some luck fall my way at some point. If God feels like blessing me with perfect gambling foresight one week, I would not mind one bit.

If you missed last week, catch up here to get yourself to speed with the ideas, my picks (again, 3-2!), and my unexplained weakness for picking the Cleveland Browns. The spark notes version: Each week, I pick five NFL games against the spread in order to win myself some hypothetical money in the very real Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest.

On to Week 2. The Table, minus Thursday Night Football. Home teams get an asterisk.

Oh man. I know a lot of people must look at this and just see letters and numbers, but when I look at this table, I see hell. Almost every game here simultaneously screams “bet me” and “you are an absolute sucker.” This week looked so brutal to me that I almost busted out my “ask a girl” gimmick before deciding that I still don’t trust women and need to save that for when the bye weeks start and I really have no idea what I’m doing.

Oh man sometimes I hate gambling.

Wait.

That’s not true.

I always love gambling.

Lions (-1.5) over Cardinals*

The Lions should have routed the Vikings last week. I mean destroyed them. If you watched the game, they had about 5 touchdowns called back, that ridiculous missed field goal and a bunch of other random variances that are one time slip ups as opposed to signs of larger issues within a football team. They overcame all of these seemingly divine interventions and not only won, but covered the spread. Beyond his first run (a 78-yard touchdown sprint) Adrian Peterson was essentially shut out, taking his 17 other carries for a total of 15 yards.

The only thing I liked about the Cardinals was finally being able to say “Honey Badger” again.

Ravens* (-6.5) over Browns

The reigning Super Bowl Champions returning home. They got absolutely murderkilled last week. This week they can take their vengeance. Plus, screw you Brandon Weedon. I trusted you.

Saints (-3) over Buccaneers*

The Buccaneers were not great last week. The Saints looked like they might be back in 2010 form. Think about what this spread will look like in Week 12. Can’t you imagine the 8-2 Saints leading the division while the 3-7 Bucs are worrying about filling seats so they don’t get moved to Los Angeles?

I imagine that if these teams met in Week 12, New Orleans would be favored by at least 7 points. This is pure speculation, but I see value in it. I don’t know who will be able to cover Vincent Jackson but I don’t care either.

Plus, Doug Martin totally blew it for my fantasy team last week. And I am a bitter, bitter man.

Chargers (+7.5) over Eagles*

Okay. This makes me feel awful. Like physically ill. Last week’s game was the most fun anyone has had watching professional football since… I don’t even know – The Greatest Show on Turf? That time the Saints pulled off an Onside Kick in the Super Bowl? Bo Jackson in Tecmo Super Bowl?

I don’t think there has ever been more written about a team after Week 1. Ever. And that’s only on Grantland (I won’t give Rick Reilly the satisfaction of including him here).

We are so much fun to watch. We score points. We use signs of Rocky and the Philly Phanatic to call plays. We line up with our two outside tackles outside the hashes and confuse the hell out of DeAngelo Hall.

Everything in my heart is begging me to pick my beloved birds. But take a look at this…

Those are your “experts” over at CBSSports picking against the spread last week. A few more if you haven’t gotten the picture yet.

If you think I am using some sort of editing tricks here to make CBS look sillier than they already are, you can examine the entirety of this Week 1 atrocity here.

For those of you keeping track at home, that is eight “experts” picking seven different games against the spread last week. The above images represent 56 separate opportunities for these “experts” to be correct. Combined, they went 5-51.

At this point, I’d like to take one more moment to say… OH HEY 3-2 HOW YOU FEELING YEAH I PICKED YOU. NO I’M NO EXPERT I’M JUST A GUY.

These “experts” UNANIMOUSLY agreed on five games against the spread last week. You can observe above that they were wrong on every one of those games. So what does this have to do with Eagles-Chargers this Sunday?

Well…

This is what we call a “contrarian” bet. The basic rule of thumb in the world of gambling is that Vegas always know more than you do. A lot more than you do. Therefore, if everyone in a given situation is “zigging” (i.e. picking the Eagles -7.5), you should elect to “zag” (pick the Chargers).

Again, please let me reiterate how much this pick destroys me. And I am aware that this is simply setting me up to look like an idiot when all those “experts” at CBSSports are finally right, and I end up blowing yet another pick thanks to Philip Rivers and company.

But I trust in the rules of the Gambling Gods. This is me zagging.

Seahawks* (-3) over 49ers

When you need one more pick to get to five, and every game makes you sick, simply put your trust in the HUSTLE, in the BUSTLE, in the RUSSELL WILSON.

This, I have been told, is what others call “faith.”

Ugh. That was difficult. It is quite possible that I fell guilty of “overthinking things like a freaking idiot” this week. It’s only Week 2, we shouldn’t have that much to think about. But hey, if CBSSports can’t bring picks to the people, somebody has to.

Happy Sundays.

Last Week: 3-2

Overall: 3-2