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Last week, I felt great about my NFL picks across the board.

My father was wrapping up his time working in Las Vegas, meaning that it would be the last week of him betting my picks without telling me even though I had a hunch he was doing it. I wanted to make him back some of the money he had undoubtedly lost as I continued to pick Derek Carr to cover the spread over and over again. I did a good amount of research, mixed it with a dash of nonsense, and found myself five underdogs that I felt confident could win my pops some money. Again, one of them was David Carr.

The Raiders failed to cover. My picks went 1-4, and I went into Monday morning feeling like a failure once again.

I have to stop feeling confident about my picks. In gambling, confidence is a myth. It cannot exist, because everything is chance and no one knows anything about anything, especially football. I wanted to remember this fact while making my picks during Week 8. I wanted to focus on facts and emotions and up to date injury information all while knowing that it was ultimately a crapshoot. I took to Twitter with intentions of making my usual pre-picking rounds: checking in on Adam Schefter, Stephania Bell, and a few NFL players that might give a little hint towards their team’s mindset heading into Sunday. But I got distracted by Zach Mettenberger.

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(Via ESPN)

The College Football Playoff selection committee will meet for the first time after Week 9. The committee is responsible for selecting a Top 25 each week that reflects the best teams in the country. The Top Four of the 25 picks represent the best four teams in a given week and the picks for the college football playoff should the playoff be held the day after the picks are made. No one at Tuesdays with Horry is on the selection committee but that won’t stop us from having a little fun. 

Through eight weeks of college football action, we head into Week 9 with a much more solidified field of candidates for the first ever playoff. Ole Miss stayed dominant by holding Tennessee to zero rushing yards. Alabama put Texas A&M in a headlock for four quarters. Florida State continues it’s win streak. And the fourth seed pick is a controversy in the making. Here are the picks as we head into Week 9:

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Welcome to TV Party, a weekly segment where we preview ten of the week’s most exciting match-ups in college football so you know when to grab some beer and ignore the outside world.

This week: our football Saturday will be marked by chicken salad finger sandwiches, white wine, and pumpkin spiced anything and everything, as well as some soft rock*. No, not “that” tape of soft rock. CVS Bangers is strictly reserved for weekends unlike this one. We just want to entertain in a polite manner (and cry immensely while trying to pretend this is what we want to do). 

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(Via Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Cleaning Up the Mess is here to make sense of what just happened at your weekend-long television party. Who put Goldfish in the blender? And why is the thermostat on 42?

This week: “Do you remember that one time we went cow tipping over at the Stewart Farm and that one cow bucked you right in face?” “Yeah, man. That hurt like hell.” “Or the time when we was out at that party and-and-and the cops came to shut it down and everybody ran out the back door and you fell into a pile of dog poo?” “Yeah, man. I had to take like three showers when I finally made it home.” “Hahaha, yeah. And, what about the time you tried hitting on that girl and she just ended up pouring a drink on you? Hahaha.” (We just had to run into Nostalgia this weekend. We’re never leaving the house again.) 

For a brief moment, it seemed like the world was thrust back to 2012. Everett Golson threw a perfect pass to receiver Corey Robinson on a slant route for a touchdown with 13 seconds remaining. The score read 33-31. Notre Dame would be back in the conversation as one of the most elite teams within the crazed sport of college football. In a flash of yellow, that possibility disappeared.

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We’re back home.

We got off to a blazing 5-0 start in Week 1 of this Hypothetical SuperContest, but after a few down weeks and a Week 4 that I wish to never speak of again, our record against the spread was looking woeful. Last week we were able to grind out some winning favorites thanks to coin flips and confusion. Now we are back in striking distance a .500 record, and we are going to depend on the dogs to do it.

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Welcome to TV Party, a weekly segment where we preview ten of the week’s most exciting match-ups in college football so you know when to grab some beer and ignore the outside world.

This week: Notre Dame is coming down the street. It’s going door-to-door to remind people that all Halloween decorations must be “tasteful” or face potential cosmetic homeowner fees. Oh no, here they come. Let’s get out of here. Say, why don’t we go down to our favorite honky tonk? You know the one with the Ernest Tubbs records and Big 12 football on. The one with no draught beer. Yeah, let’s go. It beats getting a lecture on why we can’t turn a pumpkin into a child birthing scene

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Steven Ellison, better known as Flying Lotus, performing at the 2012 Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival.

Flying Lotus performing at the 2012 Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival

The idea of a producer/composer as we now know it is something that two decades ago might have seemed unnecessary or excessive. The rise of DJs as actual musicians rather than jukebox heroes, people who create rather than simply derive, has powered this century toward an electronically-driven, hyper-evolving state in which genres become all but irrelevant. People like Aphex Twin and DJ Shadow blazed a trail for computer-programmed, beat-driven music that incorporates samples and drum machines in experimental capacities. A flood of noise precedes a few identical bars before one element changes, soon leading to a fire sale of sound exchanged for something entirely different.

To call Steven Ellison, better known as Flying Lotus, simply a DJ is to miss the mathematical beauty behind the cacophonous waves he creates. On his first four LPs, as well as the handful of mixtapes and EPs in between, he explored rippled soundscapes which tore through the listener’s consciousness so quickly and maniacally that there was hardly time to breathe. On his latest release, You’re Dead!, Ellison finds himself delving further into the infinite influences which have surrounded him since childhood and molded the 30-year-old’s long view.

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Courtesy of hoopdiamonds.com

Courtesy of hoopdiamonds.com

“Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power.” – Abraham Lincoln

At this point, we have become accustomed to superstar injuries in sports. For every Cal Ripken, Jr., there are dozens of Paul Georges, each shining intensely before falling at a most inopportune time. In the cases of players like George, who can be the only contributor in specific areas most of the time, the team surrounding the star can only do its best to plug the gap and hope for a miraculous turnaround time. For those teams, season-altering injuries often spell disaster, leaving bloated pundits and defeated fans to point fingers.

What’s happened to the Oklahoma City Thunder should by no means be largely season-altering, nor should the loss of reigning NBA MVP and scoring champion Kevin Durant cause immense concern for the long-term prospects of the team. The operative word in that sentence is “should,” twice over, because what we may witness is an opportunity seized on the parts of both head coach Scott Brooks and the man who will dictate the Thunder’s fortunes for at least the next six to eight weeks, point guard Russell Westbrook. How Oklahoma City responds to the temporary loss of its hero may unlock the door to the Western Conference and reveal the true potential of one of the league’s most talented and divisive players.

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(Via Jim Lytle/AP PHOTO)

Cleaning Up the Mess is here to make sense of what just happened at your weekend-long television party. Who put Goldfish in the blender? And why is the thermostat on 42?

This week: The furniture is on the roof, a screaming motorcycle crashed through the front door, someone played “Nessun Dorma” while the television was on mute and there may or may not have been a conversation about Tim Tebow. Yes, it’s 2014, and someone talked about Tim Tebow playing in the NFL. This all might seem strange and without regard for order, but it couldn’t be any weirder than Mississippi State earning the designation as the best team in the country. 

Surrealism defies logical explanation and justification. Why is that clock melting? How did that apple get there? Why is Louis C.K’s neighbor throwing a water jug out of the window? There is no explanation needed for these events because there is not meant to be one. You can try to explain Mississippi State’s 2014 season using empirical and anecdotal evidence of player development as well as recruitment evaluation. It doesn’t in any way make up for the fact that you feel like you’re in a college football fever dream punctuated by a septuagenarian ringing a cowbell and speaking in tongues.

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Back on the horse.

After a demoralizing 0-5 in Week 4, we rebounded back to stasis in Week 5, putting up a record of 2-3 ATS thanks to a lot of hard work and Excel spreadsheets. I believe that gambling well has a lot to do with hard work; if you know what to be looking for and when to be weary of Vegas, you put yourself in a position to be more successful than the average schlub that rolls into Vegas.

But, as with many aspects of life, greatness cannot come from hard work alone. Every once in a while, you need a little bit of luck. I’ll explain further. For now, just take a gander at the Week 6 slate. Home team gets the asterisk.

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