The Hypothetical SuperContest 2016 — Week 4

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Another week, another day of me being late on picks. It’s a tale as old as time. But this week I like to think I come with good reason: Last night was the first night of Meadows fest in NYC and the premiere of the new season of SNL. And tonight (indulge me for a moment) I get to see Chance the Rapper and Kanye West.

Simply put, I have more to look forward to today than gambling, which maybe only happens two Sundays a year. It could either go really good, go really bad, or go just okay, as with most things in life.

Last week, I sputtered my way to another 2-3 week on the backs of the Raiders and Eagles, who if you’ve been paying attention you might have noticed I have picked every week so far in this column. Am I going to ride this wave of lazy writing all season? Well, that depends. So far, I’m 5-1 picking my Birds and the Black….and 2-7 on all my other picks. So if it keeps working, yeah probably I’m going to keep doing this while I try and figure out what the hell the rest of the league is doing. (Looking at you, Trevor Siemian.)

Also worth noting, while I started it as an attempt to prove that nerds are lame and my picks are great, my ongoing feud with FiveThirtyEight is quickly looking like a worse and worse idea. After going 5-0 last week (and like, an easy 5-0, they cruised), the FiveThirtyEight best picks against the spread are currently 13-2 on the year.

So while I may be embarrassing myself, I might’ve stumbled upon the greatest gambling system of all time. You’re welcome America.

All that said, let’s get to the games. Here’s the slate for Week 4. Home team gets the asterisk.

supercontest_week4_16

Our first week with some teams on bye (including my Eagles). But no time for chit chat. Let’s get to the picks.

Raiders (+3.5) over Ravens*

Happy birthday @kingcrab15 !!!! #RaiderNation

A post shared by Derek Carr (@derekcarrqb) on

WE RUNNIN’ IT BACK FAM.

But for real the numbers back me up here a bit in addition to my unadulterated love for Derek Carr. According to Cousin Sal, the Ravens are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 home games, while the Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their past six road starts. To be honest, I almost get more nervous about the pick here because there’s actual logic behind it, instead of just me yelling into the void about Derek Carr.

Panthers (-3) over Falcons*

What happened to the Panthers last week? I kept checking in on their game against the Vikings expecting that them jumping into the lead was always just a few plays around the corner, but instead they just got rolled by Sam Bradford and the stout Minnesota defense.

Maybe it’s because I didn’t see most of that game, but I think the Panthers come back with a vengeance here. After posting a 15-1 record last year, Carolina is already 1-2 in 2016 and must feel like total butts. What better way to prove they’re still a force to be reckoned with in the league than by trouncing the one team that pulled off the upset against them last year?

Steelers* (-5.5) over Chiefs

DID Y’ALL SEE CARSON WENTZ GO ALL STUPID ON THE STEELERS LAST WEEK?

DID YOU????

Just making sure. Taking the Steelers here because I think they’re mad as hell after getting absolutely shellacked. Antonio Brown is gonna keep doing Antonio Brown things. Big Ben will still be a super creepy dude that is ridiculously proficient at staying on his feet in the pocket. I like the Chiefs in Arrowhead but literally nowhere else. Also, Mike Tomlin v. Andy Reid.

Texans* (-5) over Titans

Titans are trash and even with JJ Watt out I just see this as one of the games the Texans win because we all know they have to get to 9-7 somehow.

Also, if I’m being honest, the FiveThirtyEight logic has this as one of the best bets of the season so I’m hopping on board the trend. If it bites me in the ass, I have no one to blame but myself and Nate Silver.

Giants (+4.5) over Vikings*

Did I mention I didn’t watch all that much of the Vikings game? Because I didn’t. And I know that the Vikings defense terrifying, and I’ll be the first one to slam the Giants for being trash. But I like this spot because it plays as a bit of a hangover game for Minnesota.

Also, last week we got some peak Manning Face (shown above).


FiveThirtyHate

So yeah, like I said earlier, these FiveThirtyEight picks are killing it. If you just skipped all the dumb words above this and came here to get your picks for the week I do not blame you at all and congratulate you on your gambling success thus far this year.

538_week4_16

Comparing the ELO lines to the SuperContest lines, we’re left with these five picks:

Patriots* (-5.5) over Bills
Texans* (-5) over Titans
Broncos (-3) over Buccaneers*
Chiefs (+5.5) over Steelers*
Vikings* (-4.5) over Giants

Here’s to hoping I don’t look like an idiot. But even if I do, whatever. I’mma go see Kanye tonight.

Happy Sundays.

Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 7-8
FiveThirtyEight: 13-2

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