A Well-Trained Crew
While we aren’t yet twenty games into the NBA season, the generally-accepted sample size for knowing what a team looks like and, more importantly, what it’s about, some useful-enough things have happened that we can start to posit theories: the post-championship Celtics remain dominant; neither of the Knicks nor Timberwolves is necessarily better nor worse than before That KAT Trade; the Phoenix Suns maybe, possibly have it figured out; and, perhaps most noticeably to the average viewer, everybody just wants to jack threes.
In the age of players like Kevin Durant and Victor Wembanyama, arborescent men who can reliably shoot threes, spacing has become even more paramount than when Steph Curry initially began running rampant from 22+ feet. Even a player like Brook Lopez, who didn’t hit a three until his seventh season in the NBA, has been crucial for keeping defenders honest, allowing Bucks teammate Giannis Antetokounmpo to take advantage of the space Lopez’s outward movement affords him.
Even so, basketball is a tall man’s game in that it’s a big man’s game, and big men thrive in the paint – that’s why their own three-point revolution works in the first place. After the acquisition of Kristaps Porzingis last season, the Celtics rode a league-best three-point percentage, along with a second-best number of three-point attempts, to the title.
In a continuation of a slow-burning trend, one which the Harden-era Houston Rockets kicked into overdrive, teams are taking more threes as a share of total field goal attempts than ever before – though, notably, they are not really any better at hitting them than in years past. Taking more threes doesn’t necessarily mean making more of them, of course; to wit, the Charlotte Hornets are currently second in their share of threes taken, but nineteenth in percentage from deep. A healthy shot diet is dependent on the roster: you wouldn’t want Nikola Jokic taking 12 threes per game, for instance, just like you don’t want Steph Curry limiting himself to two or three.
The best exemplars of this maxim so far in 2024 have been the Cleveland Cavaliers, currently riding a franchise-record 13-game win streak to start the season on the backs of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland (whose play at point, a Cavs friend of the program reminded me to point out, is especially helpful in facilitation as both a primary and secondary ball-handler), Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Conspicuously, the latter two form the latest iteration of a twin towers-type combo that collectively does not shoot threes that much, nor that well[1].
Still, this version of the Cavs, revitalized under Kenny Atkinson, is absolutely cooking. Through thirteen games, they have the second-best net rating in the league at +11.0, trailing only the Oklahoma City Thunder. They also have the second-best offensive rating, trailing only the Celtics, and a top-six defensive rating. Again, this is a relatively small sample size, but history indicates championship-level teams have top-ten ratings on both sides of the ball.
History, though, also suggests that running out two bigs in a non-spread lineup would indicate going after rebounds, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, assuming defenders chase shooters for the more valuable three-pointer than to clog the paint duking it out for a measly two. With these Cavs, though, that hasn’t been the case: they are twentieth in overall rebounding percentage, and a ghastly twenty-eighth in offensive rebounding percentage.
Ah, but then, if there is no rebound to be had, then that percentage is bound to be low: currently, Cleveland possesses the best true shooting percentage in the league, attributable to quality looks, phenomenal ball movement and a low turnover rate. They lead the league in three-point percentage, which may be where some of the regression to the mean will enter later in the season, but they will gladly take white-hot for now, and they’re doing it on an exactly league average number of team threes taken per game, at 37.2. Complete with a locked-in team defense, they also have the most points scored off turnovers per game so far. They do foul at around a league-average rate, but so long as that holds, that shouldn’t be much of a problem.
Much of this is also a credit to the development of Mobley, whose magnificent play in the playoffs a season ago suggested the leap we’ve all been waiting for, particularly against the indomitable Celtics in the second round. Though a rock on defense, Mobley’s come-up on the other side was a harbinger of what we’ve seen so far this season.
As SBNation’s Jacolby Hart pointed out, this is further a credit to Atkinson, who has unlocked Mobley’s potential in a way that JB Bickerstaff simply could not over the past three seasons. Fresh off of an assistant job with the Golden State Warriors, with whom he won the 2022 title, Atkinson has been the charge necessary to invigorate a young core of star-level players.
Naturally, it brings to mind Atkinson’s last head coaching gig in the NBA, an ill-fated stint with the Brooklyn Nets. After leading a scrappy team featuring both of Allen and current Cavalier Caris LeVert to the playoffs in 2019 for the first time in five years, Brooklyn management decided to break up the core in favor of bringing in James Harden, for whom they traded Allen, as well as Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. Atkinson quit halfway through the following season. While this team did get a half-shoe size away from the NBA Finals in 2021, they never managed to stay healthy enough to do more than that.
This team, then, is a continuation of that vision, albeit one built less on space and more on execution. Lamenting the number of threes teams take in 2024 borders on Shaq and Chuck being old men yelling at clouds, but it’s worth it to acknowledge that stylistic differences can be a good thing for the league as a whole. Their schedule has been challenging, but not outrageous; 15-0 is within reach before the Cavs meet the Celtics next Tuesday night. Right now, though, nobody is doing it more distinctly – or better – than the Cleveland Cavaliers.
[1] Allen is a career 17% shooter from distance, on 0.2 3PA per game; Mobley fares slightly better, hitting 27% of the 1.4 threes he takes per game.
Tuesdays With Horry 