Great Expectations
(No, let’s not talk about the Clippers at this time. Thank you for your support and consideration.)
As we all knew years-plural ahead of time, Victor Wembenyama went number one overall in the first round of this year’s NBA draft. By providence, perhaps, the San Antonio Spurs drew the number one pick in a year when a generational center was available, just as they had in 1989 with David Robinson and in 1997 with Tim Duncan.
It was the inevitability that drove the madness: a little over two years ago, it was the Scoot and Vic show. Two seasons and one nationally-televised game pitting the G League Ignite development team against Big Vic’s Paris-based Metropolitans 92 later, and Victor was the clear-cut number one.
Now, the link between the Michael Jordan era (1983 onward) and the contemporary game of basketball (until, presumably, 2045 or so) is Gregg Popovich, maybe the greatest NBA head coach of all time but definitely the only head coach I’ve ever seen get thrown out of an NBA game.
This is a wonderful possibility that will neatly place a bow on many obituaries of everyone involved, including all the Spurs greats Wemby met with one Saturday night earlier this year like Duncan and Robinson (but excluding Duncan Robinson, unfortunately). At some point, one can only dream of imagining, Wembenyama will meet George Gervin, circling the square on reaching to the team’s ABA days.
Lottery picks of his size are obviously uncommon, as are any draft picks approximating it. Through four games, including a career opener that mirrored Duncan’s, Vic’s fit the oversized bill.
Everyone agrees he will be great; it’s only a matter of how great. He’ll fill out, sure, because he has to, that almost being a categorical imperative of a person of his size; then he’ll become a dominant force who can steal a jumpshot flat-footed from a 6’8” 3-and-D type – Paul George, maybe, or at least Robert Covington – and then run the floor before deking everyone else and knocking down a three. He does have a backup plan.
The thing is – and I’m rooting for Vic, I promise; he’s the blueprint for the next stylistic evolution in basketball if he pulls it off, but – you always have to wonder about the structural health of players of this length. Wembenyama’s listed at 7’5” and 215 pounds; humans have evolved, but not quite at his rate, and if the Spurs actually do try to send him down low for the next year or two as anything other than a decoy or backdoor finisher, there’s a chance they may end up with a few medical bills.
Even so, lottery picks of something approaching his height – again, not an altogether business-as-usual guy we’re dealing with here – do tend to hold up. Good news for those who want to be reminded of Hasheem Thabeet’s existence and for those who wish to relish in the idea that Kristaps Porzingis is a fraud. Good and bad news for any New Orleans Pelicans fan, as Zion Williamson is excluded from any of this.
In looking into these unique parameters, and with a hearty thanks as always to basketball-reference.com, I found that, on average, players over 7’3” play 47% of their available games (meaning games they were expected to play; I excluded years spent abroad and and adjusted for lockout-shortened seasons).
This includes undrafted players like Tacko Fall and Sim Bhullar, as well as second rounders like Gheorghe Mureșan, your giant, and Manute Bol. It also features Mark Eaton, the ironman of extremely tall NBA players – over eleven seasons with the Utah Jazz, Eaton played in 97% of his expected games, including four seasons in which he played all 82. While it is a shame he had to spend that much time with Karl Malone and John Stockton, at least he got a few blocks titles out of it.
Fortunately for teams that time it correctly, it gets better the higher you go in the draft. First round picks 7’3” or taller almost (sorry) inch you into the territory necessary to qualify for certain league-wide seasonal honors – as of this season, 65 games played is the requisite number for All-NBA honors, which typically trigger contract bonuses for the higher rung of the league’s players. Such players end up playing around 58 games per season. Examples include Žydrūnas Ilgauskas, Randy Breuer and, perhaps most notably for a player of his size drafted outside the lottery, Arvydas Sabonis.
Better news awaits for Victor. When an NBA team drafts a lottery pick, they can expect that player to be active for 61% of their possible games – these are Rik Smits, Shawn Bradley and Yao Ming. Cursed, unfortunately, is Aleksandar Radojević, who only played in 15 games over two NBA seasons, five years apart.
Wembenyama has been as good as advertised, if not better, through his first four games. He’s the odds-on favorite to win Rookie of the Year and will soon be in annual discussions for Defensive Player of the Year among, presumably, many other honors. Between Popovich, the Spurs training staff and his own learned habits for taking care of himself, we should expect to see plenty of Victor Wembenyama over the course of his NBA career.
Tuesdays With Horry 